Tanzania will face a deficit of food crops of 1,313,199 tonnes in 2009/10, according to the Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network.
The bulk of the shortage will involve cereals, the network says in a preliminary food forecast report.
Some areas in the country are already facing food shortages following a sharp decline in food production in the 2008/09 season due to unfavourable rains.
The country produced a total of 5,265,309 tonnes of cereals in the 2008/9 season against the requirement of 6,578,508 tonnes in the 2009/10 consumption year.
During the production year, the country produced a total of 10,921,536 tonnes of food against 10,578,196 tonnes required in the 2009/10 consumption year.
In effect, a net food situation involving the 2008/09 production is such that a self-sufficiency ratio of 103 percent or a little surplus of 343,340 tonnes is attainable.
Compared to previous season, production decline has been observed in sorghum 20 per cent, maize 4 per cent and rice 4 per cent and pulses 4 per cent, due to poor rains in respect of late onset, inappropriate distribution and early cessation, dismal rains in some bimodal areas, soil degradation and pest and vermin prevalence.
Analysis of carry-over stocks shows that about 462,870 tonnes was available from three different sources such as, private stocks 121,560 tonnes, public stocks/SGR 109,876 tonnes and farm retention 231,435 tonnes.
Adding the carry over stocks to the below mentioned production surplus a total of 806,210 tonnes will be available over and above the amount satisfying national requirement for year 2009/10.
Based on this Preliminary forecast, the 2008 Vuli season contributed 13 per cent only of total production compared to normal 18 per cent national perspective or 24 per cent only versus 32 per cent bimodal area perspective, showing a possible draw-down impact of about 518,359 tonnes.
At sub-national level, self- sufficient analysis warns of nine deficit regions. Furthermore, further warnings are focused to eight additional regions bearing pockets of food shortage.
Excluding Dar es Salaam, which is largely non-agricultural, the 17 regions bear vulnerable population in 61 districts. The identified vulnerable areas will need to be subjected to an in-depth vulnerability assessment for necessary intervention.
Observant to current global food crisis manifested through soaring food prices, the produced food during 2008/09 should be prudently managed to avoid adverse food shortage due to excessive trading and �misuse� for nonfood purposes.
Measures should be taken to improve utilisation potential of a broader basket of foods including sorghum, bulrush millet, cassava, banana and sweet potatoes to enhance food availability.
Innovative practices such as blending should be pursued to include such crops. Regional integration is an area that may be adversely or favorably exploited by member countries and this should be explored for the interest of Tanzania.
Blanket policy statements of non-exportation protectionism have not always shown a positive impact. A serious study should be carried out in this area to find out what is taking place on the ground regarding food without borders.
The government planned to purchase in local market a total of 165,000 tonnes of cereals, of which 160 tonnes will be maize and 5 tonnes sorghum in the current financial year.
Source – The Citizen
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